[phpBB Debug] PHP Notice: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Notice: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Notice: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Notice: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Notice: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Notice: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Notice: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Notice: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Notice: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Notice: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Notice: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Notice: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Notice: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Notice: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Notice: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Notice: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Notice: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Notice: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Notice: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Notice: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Notice: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Notice: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Notice: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Notice: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Notice: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Notice: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Notice: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead ¤ milky moon ¤ • View topic - Joanna Newsom Song Tournament III
Yes - I saw the news on the other thread, so here's hoping! I had a look at the Drag City website, but it seems thje news must've been on a newsletter and since I don't subscribe, I couldn't see it with my own eyes.
Looking at US release dates, MEM came out on Tuesday 23 March 2004. It was then 966 days later, on Tuesday 14 November 2006, that Ys appeared. Then HOOM hit the shops on Tuesday 23rd February 2010, which was 1197 days after Ys.
The interval between Ys and HOOM was 231 days longer than that between Ys and MEM (1197-966). If that trend is repeated, and a fourth album took 231 days longer than the third, ie 1428 days (1197+231), then we'd be looking at Tuesday 21st January 2014. I'm hoping that's an upper bound, as I don't imagine we'll be treated to another triple! I seem to remember predicting (on the old forum?) that #4 might be a covers album, or perhaps one that deliberately encompassed a really wide variety of styles - something to do with the previous three covering three of the four 'traditional' space-time dimensions, and speculating that the fourth would complete the set. What a load of nonsense!
Perhaps you could do a speculation/statistical analysis thread on the last three albums? Try to predict the number of CDs, number and average, median and highest and lowest length of songs, etc.
Here is a complete run-down of all the songs and their finishing positions in the tournament, listed in their order this time, but also showing their positions in the first two tournaments. All the songs that have ever had a top twelve finish are shown in a blue colour, and all which have appeared in the top 50 in purple.
I have marked the songs which appear on the three main albums by colouring the final position in the third (2013) column - Milk-Eyed Mender in orange; Ys in red; and Have One On Me in green. As will be seen, this year's result was almost a clean sweep for Ys songs, occupying the first four places, with Monkey & Bear losing out to the best placed HOOM song - Have One On Me - for 5th place. Have One On Me (the song) fell from the runner-up position last year down to 5th, whilst In California - runner-up in JNST1 - continued to slip down, last year's 4th becoming 9th place this time out. I am tempted to speculate that JNST3 places the songs of the fisrt three albums in a 'truer' position, suspecting that HOOM songs scored more heavily last year and the year before because they were newer.
2013 Title 0001Only Skin 0002Sawdust & Diamonds 0003Emily 0004Cosmia 0005Have One On Me 0006Monkey & Bear 0007Baby Birch 0008Go Long 0009In California 0010Kingfisher 0011Soft As Chalk 0012 Colleen 0013 Look And Despair 0014Easy 0015Swansea 0016Good Intentions Paving Company 0017Sadie 0018Clam Crab Cockle Cowrie 0019Sprout And The Bean 0020"En Gallop" (aka En Gallop!) 0021’81 0022Bridges And Balloons 0023Autumn 0024Does Not Suffice 0025 Ca’ The Yowes To The Knowes 0026The Book Of Right-On 0027This Side Of The Blue 0028On A Good Day 0029Esme 0030 Flying A Kite 0031 What We Have Known 0032You And Me, Bess 0033 The Diver’s Wife (aka Diver) 0034 Erin 0035Cassiopeia 0036Occident 0037Peach, Plum, Pear 0038Three Little Babes 0039No Provenance 0040 new harp song ["Hay and a clean stall"] 0041Ribbon Bows 0042 new piano song ["...space of half a day"] 0043 Yarn And Glue 0044Jackrabbits 0045 The Fray 0046Inflammatory Writ 0047 Instrumental 1999 0048 Another Day [RH/JN] =049 Little Wing =049 Rock Bottom Riser [S] 0051 If I Were [VB] 0052 The Man Who Ran The Town [HS/JN] 0053 Tom Bombadil =054 Man’s Road =054 Ring The Living Bell [JN/S/WW] 0056 The North Star Grassman And The Ravens 0057 Do You Know Who You Are? [GS] 0058 Sycamore [BC] 0059 Kindness Be Conceived [TG] 0060 The Honey, The Power, The Light [GS] 0061 Against The Sky [VB] 0062 Our Anniversary [S] 0063 River Guard [BC] 0064 The Wheel [BC] 0065 Sympathy [GS] =066 Mountain [GS] =066 Never Come Home [P] 0068 Bring Me Down [GS] =069 Amour Fou [V] =069 Through The Trees [RF/LM] 0071 Eleven Continents [RF/LM] 0072 Shame [DB/V/JN+friends] 0073 Angel 0074 Picture [RP/JN] 0075 Amerilie [V] 0076 Prepared Harp Improv. 0077 Good Heart, Money And Rain [MB] 0078 No Style [P] =079 Another Disaster [P] =079 You & Me [KB] 0081 Roots [DB/V/JN/E/SN] 0082 Franks Vs Frank [NC] 0083 Let Go [P] 0084 This Is Just To Say =085 Lifetime [RF/LM] =085 The Muppet Show Theme [M] 0087 Mountain & Bear [KB] 0088 Secret [P] 0089 Hawk Feeds You To Feed Itself [NC] 0090 Dreams [DB/JN/V] 0091 Oh Canada [P] 0092 We Are The Doctor [P] =093 Ill Pearls [NC] =093 Intermission (aka I The Province) [P] 0095 Life's A Happy Song Finale [M] 0096 Pow Strikes Pow Implosion [NC] =097 Exit (aka Orderly Manor) [P] =097 Hear Me Marching [P] 0099 Wake Up Instead [P] 0100 The Conversation [P] 0101 Colorchains Of Inner Space [NC] 0102 untitled (from One Piece From The Middle) [P] =103 About Me [P] =103 Ras Trent [LI] 0105 One Horse [P] 0106 I'm Already Gone (aka Already Gone) [P] =107 Don't Make Things [P] =107 France [PG/JN/TF] =107 If You Can Afford It [P] =107 Nuflesh, Old Thirst [NC] =107 Orange Peter [P] =107 Rice Precipitation [NC] =107 Same Old Man [KB/JN] =107 The French Lieutenant Dreams [JN/TF] =115 Get Wolf Boy And Get In Context [NC] =115 Little Picture Of You [KB] =115 Nonrum Nonproblem [NC] =115 R.U. In [P] =115 Setting The Bushes On Fire [NC] =115 Swift Nude [P] =115 The Orchard [PG/JN/TF] =115 We Are A Crowd [LI]
Last edited by Steve on 16 Oct 2015, 21:57, edited 4 times in total.
Thanks, Steve, for also adding the positions from the previous two years! It's been really fun this year though I am sad to see HOOM (both the album and the song) losing out to almost all of Ys...
I've been keeping track of the votes and points in the final, and have collected and added together all the proportional points awarded each song after each round in the finals, just for curiosity as to how the songs fared in the finals only. No victory points or bonus points have been awarded, meaning after each round the maximum a song can get is 10 points. This makes it a tighter race, and as you can see, Kingfisher is not as heavily penalised for not having a single victory throughout the finals. It also changes the order a bit. Here's the results if anyone is interested:
70.2 Only Skin 56.2 Sawdust & Diamonds 55.9 Emily 46.0 Cosmia 45.0 Have One On Me 36.9 In California 36.4 Monkey & Bear 35.9 Baby Birch 34.9 Go Long 32.5 Kingfisher
Quite interestingly, In California has actually received about the same amount of votes as Monkey & Bear in the final rounds, but because of M&B's victories it has come in 6th while IC sits at 9th place in the official results.
(Also, here's the average proportional score for each song throughout the nine rounds of voting. Any song getting a score above 5 will then have had more points in its favour than in its disfavour. (HOOM seems to be sitting in dead centre.))
7.80 Only Skin 6.25 Sawdust & Diamonds 6.22 Emily 5.11 Cosmia 4.99 Have One On Me 4.10 In California 4.04 Monkey & Bear 3.99 Baby Birch 3.87 Go Long 3.62 Kingfisher
Hi Jordan~ and Solfatara and thank you both for your kind comments.
Interesting analysis, Solfatara! I know you said you were keeping track, too, but I hadn't realised anyone was paying that close attention! I hope I didn't make any mistakes It's also gratifying that my explanation of the procedures I was adopting were clear enough for someone to actually follow them, because I wasn't expecting that: I just put them up to remind me, and to make things transparent if anyone sought to query the results. It really made it worthwhile that you've done so: thank you.
I am interested to see your analysis of the PP only, and how it changes the order. The other - slightly cruder - measure that could be adopted is simply to tally the votes in the final round - the "V" column in the final league table. Under that measure, Emily would have overtaken Sawdust & Diamonds to go second (71 votes to 70), and In California's 45 votes would take it level with 7th placed Baby Birch, and ahead of Go Long (43). It also demonstrates that Kingfisher was not so far behind as the 'official' score might suggest, as it received 41 votes - only two fewer than Go Long, whereas the 'total' points shows it some 24 points behind the 9th placed song (49 to 73).
I also quickly re-jigged the table after excluding Bonus Points altogether (just in case anyone feels that they are unfair). However, the order was unchanged when I did this. I would justify the bonus points, as a way that every vote in earlier rounds (and even, to a minimal extend, in previous JNSTs) also carries some weight - even if it's very small - in the final.
One other small point to make about the chart of past positions (apart from the fact that I messed up some of the coour coding for the lower songs, which I have now corrected) is that I have very slightly adjusted the positions of some of the songs in JNST1 & 2 from those originally posted at the time. There's nothing sinister about this - it's just that until recently I had not heard The Pleased's "One Piece From The Middle" album, and so was unaware that some of the songs it contained were the same compostions (not always the same recording) as some on "Don't Make Things", on which they had been re-titled. In no cases did both versions receive any votes at all, so I simply eliminated the non-scoring version, and listed the two in one position, showing both titles: this of course affected the position of all the songs placed lower. (The principle behind this is that we are voting on SONGS, and not on individual versions ...so if your favourite version of, say, Inflammatory Writ, is one of the unreleased live versions on YouTube, vote according to that, rather than the one on MEM). There was also an erroneous song included in JNST 1 & 2, that I now believe Joanna didn't appear on.
Having calculated each song's position in each of the three years, there's one other chart I can put up. This attempts to score each song's performance in each JNST, by awarding points for its position. There have been differing numbers of songs in each one, so I didn't just add up the position number, though. Imagine all the songs in ant one of the JNSTs printed out in order on a piece of elastic. Then stretch the elastic down, so that the top of it (ie just above where Only Skin is printed) aligns with one end of a ruler marked with 1000 gradations, and the bottom end, just below the last placed song, aligns with zero. Then, for each song, add up the marking beside its name in each of the three JNSTs. (Where two or more songs are equal in any JNST, first list them in an arbitrary order, but then average out the marks for each tied batch). Finally, instead of adding up the three figures from JNST1, 2, & 3, I averaged them, to take account of the fact that not every song in JNST3 was included in JNST 1 or 2. This still gives a slightly distorted outcome, for the following reason: There were 95 (valid) songs in JNST1, and a song receiving no votes at all was of course placed last - there were 38 such songs, all placed =58th, which - when averaged out - is equivalent to finishing in "76½"th place, giving it a score on 194.7 on our piece of elastic*. However, JNST3 contained 122 songs, so an equivalent song (ie no votes at all) would have scored considerably less than 194.7, even without the fact that the Preliminary Round system (pairing the more obscure / less popular songs, and thus making it more likely that they would get some votes) meant that those eight songs that still scored 'zero' were placed =115th, and scored only 28.7 on the elastic measure. This would all be OK, were it not for the fact that some - in particular the rather tenuous Lonely Island We Are A Crowd - has ONLY been in JNST3, and so its average is rather depressed.
* Of course, I didn't really mess about with elastic and rulers, but I used the formula P = 1000 × (1 - (a ÷ n)), where P = points scored for placing in the JNST in question a = (adjusted) position in that JNST [eg: a = 7 for the song finishing 7th; if five songs finished =31st, a = 33 for all five of them [the average of 31, 32, 33, 34 & 35]) n = number of songs in that JNST. You can see intuitively that the figure quoted for the songs in 76½th place is about right: there were 95 songs, so they were all 18½ places short of the notional bottom, and if were stretched 95 to 100 it would increase the 18½ by roughly one 20th (5/100) [ie a bit less than 1], this figure being multiplied by 10 when the stretch was continued up to 1000.
Anyway, after doing all this, the 'cumulative' JNSTs come out as follows:
Pos Points Song 001 990·6 Only Skin 002 968·1 Sawdust & Diamonds 003 964·7 Emily 004 956·0 Cosmia 005 955·7 In California 006 955·4 Have One On Me 007 925·3 Go Long 008 923·6 Baby Birch 009 923·5 Monkey & Bear 010 901·7 Kingfisher 011 893·4 Look And Despair 012 890·2 Colleen 013 889·7 Swansea 014 864·0 Easy 015 858·3 Clam Crab Cockle Cowrie 016 856·5 Sadie 017 846·8 Good Intentions Paving Company 018 820·6 Soft As Chalk 019 806·8 "En Gallop" (aka En Gallop!) 020 786·7 Does Not Suffice 021 785·8 Sprout And The Bean 022 782·5 Flying A Kite 023 778·8 Bridges And Balloons 024 776·9 The Book Of Right-On 025 775·1 Peach, Plum, Pear 026 749·3 You And Me, Bess 027 749·1 ’81 028 747·5 What We Have Known 029 741·5 On A Good Day 030 731·9 This Side Of The Blue 031 722·8 Esme 032 708·5 No Provenance 033 682·4 Erin 034 680·8 Occident 035 674·0 Autumn 036 673·9 Ca’ The Yowes To The Knowes 037 672·1 new harp song ["Hay and a clean stall"] 038 664·8 The Diver’s Wife (aka Diver) 039 661·1 Inflammatory Writ 040 655·7 new piano song ["...space of half a day"] 041 643·7 Cassiopeia 042 638·1 Yarn And Glue 043 602·3 Rock Bottom Riser [S] 044 596·7 The Fray 045 596·6 Little Wing 046 590·1 Jackrabbits 047 589·1 Ribbon Bows 048 588·3 Instrumental 1999 049 573·8 The Man Who Ran The Town [HS/JN] 050 569·9 Another Day [RH/JN] 051 562·6 If I Were [VB] 052 553·3 Three Little Babes 053 541·5 Ring The Living Bell [JN/S/WW] 054 541·0 The North Star Grassman And The Ravens 055 535·0 Man’s Road 056 530·4 Tom Bombadil 057 516·4 Kindness Be Conceived [TG] 058 513·0 Our Anniversary [S] 059 467·2 Sympathy [GS] 060 467·0 Do You Know Who You Are? [GS] 061 442·6 Bring Me Down [GS] 062 431·1 Prepared Harp Improv. 063 417·6 Good Heart, Money And Rain [MB] 064 409·8 Shame [DB/V/JN+friends] 065 404·9 Sycamore [BC] 066 403·2 Lifetime [RF/LM] 067 396·7 Against The Sky [VB] 068 381·1 Franks Vs Frank [NC] 069 373·7 River Guard [BC] 070 370·1 Never Come Home [P] 071 352·8 Angel 072 351·8 The Honey, The Power, The Light [GS] 073 350·0 Picture [RP/JN] 074 348·4 You & Me [KB] 075 336·1 Roots [DB/V/JN/E/SN] 076 328·3 Exit (aka Orderly Manor) [P] 077 325·8 Amour Fou [V] 077 325·8 Through The Trees [RF/LM] 079 325·8 The Muppet Show Theme [M] 080 321·7 Eleven Continents [RF/LM] 081 303·9 Mountain [GS] 082 297·2 Oh Canada [P] 083 291·7 We Are The Doctor [P] 084 286·9 Mountain & Bear [KB] 085 286·8 Life's A Happy Song Finale [M] 086 280·6 Amerilie [V] 087 264·7 The Wheel [BC] 088 262·3 Dreams [DB/JN/V] 089 260·2 Intermission (aka I The Province) [P] 090 226·4 No Style [P] 091 222·3 Another Disaster [P] 092 217·6 This Is Just To Say 093 213·8 Don't Make Things [P] 093 213·8 If You Can Afford It [P] 093 213·8 Orange Peter [P] 093 213·8 Same Old Man [KB/JN] 097 212·7 Let Go [P] 098 201·7 Swift Nude [P] 099 200·8 Hear Me Marching [P] 100 199·1 Secret [P] 101 196·3 Hawk Feeds You To Feed Itself [NC] 102 190·5 The Orchard [PG/JN/TF] 103 184·1 Ill Pearls [NC] 104 180·3 The Conversation [P] 105 177·2 Pow Strikes Pow Implosion [NC] 106 169·0 Wake Up Instead [P] 107 163·9 untitled (from One Piece From The Middle) [P] 108 163·6 Colorchains Of Inner Space [NC] 109 156·7 About Me [P] 109 156·7 Ras Trent [LI] 111 152·6 One Horse [P] 112 149·9 I'm Already Gone (aka Already Gone) [P] 113 137·6 Nuflesh, Old Thirst [NC] 113 137·6 Rice Precipitation [NC] 115 115·7 Get Wolf Boy And Get In Context [NC] 115 115·7 Little Picture Of You [KB] 115 115·7 Nonrum Nonproblem [NC] 115 115·7 R.U. In [P] 115 115·7 Setting The Bushes On Fire [NC] 120 109·0 France [PG/JN/TF] 120 109·0 The French Lieutenant Dreams [JN/TF] 122 028·7 We Are A Crowd [LI]
Last edited by Steve on 16 Oct 2015, 21:56, edited 3 times in total.
Thank for setting this up man! I am soooo fucking excited for us to have new songs to add in. One thing I sort of realized--Sawdust & Diamonds jumped up over Emily. Sort of surprised to see changes in opinion about Ys seven years later. I guess it is a pretty fucking dynamic record!